Without haste, but without fear. The latest EFPA- elEconomista survey shows a certain bias towards risk on the part of financial advisers . Of the 311 professionals who participated in the survey, only 28, 9% of the total, expect to lower their exposure to equities for the second half of 2021.
49% will maintain it, and 42% will increase it. That 42% is slightly higher than the 39% of the last survey, carried out in January and with a 3-month vision. | Editorial: No reason to avoid equities.
From these percentages it can be extracted that these experts expect the market to continue supported by stimuli, both monetary and from the reconstruction funds that will be arriving. And that they do not expect a deep correction , even if, by the end of summer, the Fed’s messages are expected to begin to harden.
So far in 2021, the main indices have already experienced double-digit increases, which exceed 19% in the case of the Cac (the French is the most bullish among the large European markets), 16% for the EuroStoxx, and 12% with regard to the Ibex 35. Even so, these last two indicators still have a 12-month bullish potential of close to 10%, according to Bloomberg ; for the French index, this path falls to 6.6%. And for the Dax, as well as for the US indicators, it exceeds 10%.
The EFPA- elEconomista survey is the result of the collaboration between this newspaper and the European Association for Financial Advisory and Planning in Spain and, although it has been carried out for years, it is now being reissued with a biannual approach.
Beyond this positive bias towards the stock market, the survey reveals a preference for maintaining the current weight of Spanish equities over the European portfolio in the portfolio (and not increasing it): only 20% of advisers plan to increase it for the second half the year, and 51% will keep it.
Liquidity for companies
“Central banks have pledged not to eliminate monetary stimulus for the time being. The Fed’s first rate hike will not occur in 2021, but most likely in the second half of 2022”, highlights Gilles Seurat, multi-asset manager of La Française AM, which reviews the reasons why companies will continue to enjoy abundant liquidity, which in turn will support the stock exchanges: “The ECB will continue to buy corporate bonds in the immediate future: the first program to be liquidated will be the PEPP , which is only made up of sovereign debt, not credit. ”
From the French entity they continue, for all this, feeling “optimistic” with respect to the European equity markets. “Fundamentals remain favorable as mass vaccination campaigns are picking up pace, economies are about to reopen fully and corporate profits look very good compared to the very low data for 2020,” they explain.
The reluctance of governments to withdraw support for the economy is helping investors become more confident in growth (another positive for equities).
Concentrated flows in Europe
For their part, the analysts of the Portocolom AV team point out that they continue to see equity markets “somewhat exhausted”, although it is true that the absence of large movements in the indices is being replaced by significant rotations at the sector level. “Flows are more concentrated in Europe, coinciding with the greater exposure to value sectors compared to growth “, a consequence of a euro zone that is beginning to pick up a certain pace in its economic recovery, they explain.
“After a few months in which the oil companies were the protagonists, they have been replaced by the financial sector, which, after years of relatively poor performance, is favored by expectations of rate hikes and the steeper slope in the interest rate curves. interest “, they add. In a year marked by the rotation towards the cycle, it is not surprising that, within the European EuroStoxx 50, entities such as ING or Santander sneak among the most bullish (on the Ibex, banks dominate the rises).
Valuations support the Old Continent against the US. If the PER (profit multiplier) of the S&P 500 is 22 times with the profits of this year, that of Europe is around 19 times, which goes down to 16 if we take into account the expected profit next year.
Few look towards debt
The other, to be expected, conclusion from this survey is that there are very few – only 7% of those surveyed – advisers who will increase their exposure to fixed income. The outlook is complicated for the bond investor: in the best of scenarios, a desert crossing awaits because of the meager returns it offers; and at worst, an ice age, due to the heavy losses it may suffer in anticipation of a rate hike (since, if they rise, prices fall).
Peter Barzilai is a high school pitcher and college rower turned longtime World News journalist. Peter has also written for Buzz Feed and Huffington Post and many other major publications, Peter Loves everything about sports and loves to write on trending topics and he is CryptoNewsMarket member since 2017.
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